Simplistic China Update: Housing and War
There’s some weird stuff going on
I make no claim to know much about contemporary China. I read a few newsletters, the mainstream coverage, and stories like the Philippines reef thing that sounds like gangs of children playing at war. But there is definitely a weird thing going on in this pivotal, power player nation.
First, housing and their economy. At some point during their recent growth period, prior to Covid, housing development was as much as 30% of the GDP. Given that housing is pretty speculative, especially on the grand scale of the big China developers, this should have been seen as a major problem.
Here’s an indicator of the scale of this: there are enough vacant or unfinished housing units in China to house the entire population. That’s in addition to existing units.
That is a preposterous factoid and like most ‘facts’ from the ancient land, it must be taken with skepticism. But, based on the absolutely bonkers images of dozens of identical high rise apartment buildings lined up in major cities, many vacant and unfinished, it seems possible.
Many average Chinese citizens, with newfound disposable income, invested in these units. But then, as might seem obvious given the numbers, the bottom fell out of the market, leaving millions holding…
